In a market where virtually everything has risen, where should investors look for the next move? By splitting S&P 500 industries into defensive and cyclical camps we found that cyclicals offer richer fields to plow for new investment ideas.
Below, we review four cyclical stocks that could be positioned for strong gains in the second half of 2013: BE Aerospace (BEAV), Blackrock (BLK), DirecTV (DTV), and Qualcomm (QCOM). Each are long-term buys on our recommended Focus List.
Cyclical industries collectively enjoy better growth prospects for both this year and next year. They look cheap relative to 10-year norms for trailing earnings, current-year estimates, and next-year estimates. Conversely, defensive stocks as a group trade at a premium to historical norms.
Best Industrial Disributor Companies To Watch In Right Now: Frozen Food Express Industries Inc.(FFEX)
Frozen Food Express Industries, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides temperature-controlled truckload and less-than-truckload services in the United States. It offers truckload linehaul, dedicated fleets, and less-than-truckload linehaul services, as well as brokerage services, including ocean, air, and domestic and international expedited services. The company primarily transports meat, ice, poultry, seafood, processed foods, candy and other confectionaries, dairy products, pharmaceuticals, medical supplies, fresh and frozen fruits and vegetables, cosmetics, films, and Christmas trees. It also leases refrigerated trailers for the storage and transportation of perishable items. As of September 30, 2011, the company operated a fleet of 1,178 tractors and 2,360 trailers. Frozen Food Express Industries, Inc. was founded in 1946 and is based in Dallas, Texas.
Advisors' Opinion:- [By John Udovich]
Despite what can best be described as a�soft economy, small cap trucking stocks YRC Worldwide, Inc (NASDAQ: YRCW), Arkansas Best Corporation (NASDAQ: ABFS), Frozen Food Express Industries, Inc (NASDAQ: FFEX), Saia Inc (NASDAQ: SAIA) and USA Truck, Inc (NASDAQ: USAK) have been trucking some pretty impressive returns since the start of the year. In fact, these small cap trucking stocks are up anywhere from 72% to 150% or so since the start of the year despite the slow economy. Certainly trucking stocks provide a good indicator of how the economy is doing, but might investors be�jumping the gun by pushing up these trucking stocks?
Best Defensive Companies To Watch For 2014: SanDisk Corporation(SNDK)
Sandisk Corporation designs, develops, and manufactures NAND flash memory storage solutions that are used in various consumer electronics products. The company offers removable cards under the SanDisk Ultra, SanDisk Extreme, and SanDisk Extreme PRO brands; embedded products under the iNAND brand; universal serial bus (USB) flash drives under the Cruzer brand; digital media players under the Sansa brand; solid state drives under the Lightning brand; and wafers and memory components. Its removable card products are used in a range of consumer electronics devices, including mobile phones, digital cameras, gaming devices, and laptop computers; and embedded flash products are used in mobile phones, tablets, ultrabooks, eReaders, global positioning system devices, gaming systems, imaging devices, and computing platforms. The company also provides high-capacity storage solutions, such as solid-state drives that are used in lieu of hard disk drives. It offers its products to the m obile phone, consumer electronics, and computing end markets through original equipment manufacturers, distributors, and retail sales channels in the Americas, the Asia Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Japan. The company was formerly known as SunDisk Corporation and changed its name to SanDisk Corporation in August 1995. SanDisk Corporation was founded in 1988 and is headquartered in Milpitas, California.
Advisors' Opinion:- [By Peter Graham]
The Q2 2014 earnings report for storage solutions stock SanDisk Corporation (NASDAQ: SNDK), a peer or competitor of Western Digital Corp (NASDAQ: WDC) and Seagate Technology PLC (NASDAQ: STX), is scheduled for after the market closes on Wednesday. Aside from the SanDisk Corporation earnings report, it should be said that the Western Digital Corp Q4 2014 earnings report is scheduled for July 30th while the Seagate Technology PLC Q4 2014 earnings report is scheduled for after the market closes on Thursday. However, SanDisk Corporation has been getting some bullish attention from analysts lately plus the company has recently announced a new acquisition.��
Best Defensive Companies To Watch For 2014: Sprint Corp (S&LS)
Sprint Corporation, incorporated on May 10, 2012, offers a range of wireless and wireline communications services to consumers, businesses and government users. On July 10, 2013, the Company, SoftBank Corp. and Sprint Nextel Corporation (Sprint Nextel) completed the merger. In the Merger, Sprint Corporation was merged into Sprint Nextel, New Sprint became the parent company of Sprint Nextel, with Sprint Nextel becoming its direct wholly owned subsidiary, and Sprint Nextel changed its name to Sprint Communications, Inc.
The Company develops, engineers and deploys technologies, including the first wireless fourth generation (4G) service from a national carrier in the United States; offering mobile data services, prepaid brands, including Virgin Mobile USA, Boost Mobile, and Assurance Wireless; instant national and international push-to-talk capabilities, and a global Tier 1 Internet Service. The Company also offers unlimited data services.
Advisors' Opinion:- [By Holly LaFon]
Since Wilmers & Co. took over M&T Bank in 1983 the bank has acquired 23 banks and Savings and Loans (S&Ls) ��expanding from a single state to seven ��and assets have grown from $2 billion to $110 billion. M&T's branch count has grown from 60 to over 870. The bank currently boasts a customer base of over 2 million retail household customers and nearly 220,000 commercial customers.
Best Defensive Companies To Watch For 2014: China Metro-Rural Holdings Limited(CNR)
China Metro-Rural Holdings Limited, through its subsidiaries, primarily engages in the development and operation of agricultural logistics and trade centers in northeast China. It also involves in purchasing, processing, assembling, merchandising, and distributing pearls and jewelry products. The company markets its pearls and jewelry products to wholesale distributors and mass merchandisers in Europe, the United States, Hong Kong, and other parts of Asia. In addition, it develops, sells, and leases residential and commercial properties in Hong Kong and the People?s Republic of China. The company is based in Tsimshatsui, Hong Kong.
Advisors' Opinion:- [By Katie Brennan]
Canadian National Railway Co. (CNR) added 0.9 percent to C$104.93 and Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd. rose 1.7 percent to C$131.73.
Niko Resources surged 3.4 percent to $8.64 after the company entered an agreement for a $60 million loan that will be funded by a group of institutional investors. Net proceeds from the loan will be used to fund working capital requirements.
Best Defensive Companies To Watch For 2014: Powershares Dynamic Networking Portfolio (PXQ)
PowerShares Dynamic Networking Portfolio (the Fund) seeks investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield of an equity index called the Dynamic Networking Intellidex Index (the Networking Intellidex). The Networking Intellidex consists of stocks of 30 United States networking companies. These are companies that are principally engaged in the development, manufacture, sale or distribution of products, services or technologies that support the flow of electronic information, including voice, data, images and commercial transactions. These companies may include providers of telecommunications and networking equipment, data storage, systems software, Internet hardware, including servers, routers, switches and related equipment, systems for data encryption and security, Internet services, including hosting and commercial exchanges, fiber optics, satellites, cable equipment, and other companies involved in supporting the flow of information. Stocks are selected principally on the basis of their capital appreciation potential as identified by the AMEX (the Intellidex Provider) pursuant to its Intellidex methodology. The Fund�� investment advisor is PowerShares Capital Management LLC.
The Fund will normally invest at least 80% of its total assets in common stocks of networking companies. The Fund will normally invest at least 90% of its total assets in common stocks that comprise the Networking Intellidex. The Networking Intellidex is adjusted quarterly, and the Fund, using an indexing investment approach, attempts to replicate the performance of the Networking Intellidex. The Fund generally will invest in all of the stocks comprising the Networking Intellidex in proportion to their weightings in the Networking Intellidex.
Advisors' Opinion:- [By John Udovich]
Just before Thanksgiving, small cap networking stock Infoblox Inc (NYSE: BLOX) sank 28.65% on guidance that was below expectations, but the stock has still outperformed the year-to-date�performance of�networking ETF like the PowerShares Dynamic Networking ETF (NYSEARCA: PXQ) and iShares S&P North American Networking ETF (NYSEARCA: IGN). So what went wrong and could investors have just overeacted?
Best Defensive Companies To Watch For 2014: Western Asset Global Partners Income Fund Inc. (GDF)
Western Asset Global Partners Income Fund Inc. operates as a close-ended fixed income mutual fund launched and advised by Legg Mason Partners Fund Advisor, LLC. The fund is sub-advised by Western Asset Management Company. It primarily invests in the fixed income markets across the globe. The fund invests in high-yield U.S. and non-U.S. corporate debt securities and high-yield foreign sovereign debt securities. It benchmarks the performance of its portfolio against the Lehman Brothers U.S. Corporate High Yield 2% Issuer Cap Index and the JPMorgan Emerging Markets Bond Index Global Index. The fund was formerly known as Salomon Brothers Global Partners Income Fund Inc. Western Asset Global Partners Income Fund was founded in 1993 and is based in the United States.
Advisors' Opinion:- [By Chuck Carnevale]
Our first example looks at Vectren Corp.�� historical earnings, a utility with a 15-year historical earnings growth rate that is below our 3% threshold established in Part 1. Note that fair valuation is calculated using Graham Dodd�� Formula (GDF) deriving a fair value PE of 13.8 (slightly below, but close to our PE 15 standard). However, a normal PE of 16 has been historically applied by Mr. Market. Therefore, valuation falls between a PE of 13.8 to 16, or well within a range of normalcy.
Best Defensive Companies To Watch For 2014: Cedar Shopping Centers Inc (CDR)
Cedar Shopping Centers, Inc., real estate investment trust, engages in the ownership, operation, development and redevelopment of supermarket-anchored community shopping centers and drug store-anchored convenience centers in the United States. As of December 31, 2007, it owned 118 properties, aggregating approximately 12.0 million square feet of gross leasable area primarily in Pennsylvania, Massachusetts, Virginia, Ohio, Connecticut, New Jersey, Maryland, Michigan, and New York. Cedar Shopping has elected to be treated as a REIT for federal income tax purposes and would not be subject to federal income tax, if it distributes at least 90% of its REIT taxable income to its stockholders. The company was founded in 1984 and is based in Port Washington, New York.
Advisors' Opinion:- [By Bill Smith]
Valuation
Lastly, because of the negative perception the entire industry has received, prices in this sector have been absolutely pummeled. ESI now trades at the lower end of all of its historical valuation bands: P/E, P/B, and P/S.
Bullish Points
Guru ownership and avg price: ESI owned by Hussman ($76.15), Weitz ($75.32), and Greenblatt ($73.29)Over 35% of shares are short, potential short squeezeStock buyback plan: ESI reduced outstanding shares by 19% yoy at the end of the 4th quarter. They repurchased 370K shares in 3Q11.The business model is scalable; the incremental cost to educate each additional student is low, leading to high marginsESI acquired Daniel Webster College, giving them a regional accreditation which they can use to broaden their reach in online classes
Bearish Points
High costs of education, in general, rightly or wrongly attract government intervention and could squeeze margins over time. Total student debt surpassed credit card balances, and sits at $1 Trillion as of the end of 2011.Subject to compliance with Dept of Education's 90/10 rules, which states a college can't collect more than 90% of revenue from students participating in federal loan programs.Cohort Default Rate (CDR): for-profit colleges must monitor the federal loan default rates of students who graduate or leave the school. If a school's CDR exceeds 25% for 3 consecutive years, or 40% in any one year, its students won't be eligible for federal financial aid.ESI competes on quality of product which is measured by graduation rates and ability to secure employment. For 2010, 70% of ESI graduates got employment in positions using skills taught in their program of study within 1 year. As of Oct 2011, this rate was 600 bp higher. The average annual salary reported by employed 2011 grads was $32K, compared to $32.4K for 2010 grads.With an improving economy, there's a potential ESI would see declining new student enrollmentsOver 35% of shares are short
Summary
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