Friday, February 21, 2014

Dec. housing starts end strong in 2013

Housing starts fell sharply last month but they remained strong enough to give builders their best year since 2007, the Commerce Department said Friday.

Starts fell 9.8% to a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 999,000 in December following a surge in November to the highest level of the year -- 1.1 million. December's rate was the year's third highest.

The government estimated 923,400 homes and apartments were started last year. That's more than 18% above the 2012 figure of 780,600.

In 2007, housing starts totaled nearly 1.4 million.

Applications for building permits, a barometer of future activity, fell 3% in December. Applications for permits to build single-family homes fell 4.8% while applications to build apartments were unchanged.

Friday's numbers follow Thursday's report showing U.S. home builders losing a little confidence this month.

The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo builder sentiment index dipped to 56, down slightly from December, but the index is still higher than where it was a year ago. Readings above 50 indicate more builders view conditions as good than poor while those under 50 point to pessimism.

Rising home prices and pent up demand will drive a gradual recovery in the year ahead, says David Crowe, chief economist of the National Association of Home Builders.

Hot Canadian Stocks To Buy For 2015

NAHB predicts single family construction to hit 820,000 units this year. That's still far off the 1.3-million a year pace in the years leading up to the housing bubble and bust.

Construction of multi-family units will come closer to normal with 326,000 units this year vs. a more historical norm of 340,000, NAHB says.

NAHB doesn't expect the home building sector to fully recover until 2016.

"We are getting there but it's not a fast process," Crowe says.

Overall, housing and economic activity is now back to normal i! n 56 of 350 metropolitan areas nationwide, shows the latest NAHB/First American Leading Markets Index.

That index tracks housing permits, home prices and employment data. Major metros topping the list include Baton Rouge, La, Honolulu, Austin and Houston, Texas.

Follow me on Twitter @JulieSchmit



Home building recovering

Annual construction starts of single-family homes and multi-family buildings, in millions:

Sponsored byStarts
Year 0,1.85 1,1.96 2,2.07 3,1.80 4,1.36 5,0.91 6,0.55 7,0.59 8,0.61 9,0.78 10,0.92
YearSource: U.S. Census Bureau from Haver Analytics

Thursday, February 20, 2014

Rieder: Not Oscars, but journalism prizes matter

Among the long list of inexact sciences in the world, picking award-winners is right up there. And that's true whether the subject is movies, music or journalism.

Let's start with movies. The Oscar Hall of Shame is a crowded place.

Take 1976. The nominees for best picture included such standouts as Taxi Driver, Network and All the President's Men. The winner? Rocky!!??! Enjoyable hokum, sure, but (and I say this as a Philly guy), really?

And Dances with Wolves over Goodfellas? Forrest Gump over Pulp Fiction. Are you kidding me?

The Grammys have had their share of lowlights as well. Take 1979, when disco's A Taste of Honey edged out some guy named Elvis Costello for best new artist. And two words: Milli Vanilli.

Journalism awards, of course, don't quite attract the attention of the pop culture prizes. No red carpets. No endless speculating on who will win. But while not nearly as sexy, they play an important role in the field. And they also trigger their share of debates. Among them: Do news outlets pay too much attention and devote too much firepower to pursuing awards at the expense of day-in, day-out reporting that is essential to their communities? Are some of those multipart extravaganzas with their endless, intimidating seas of gray type aimed more at fellow journalists than readers?

We're now in the midst of journalism awards season. On Sunday, Long Island University announced the winners of its George Polk Awards. And while much outstanding work was honored, two particular awards jumped out at me.

In the national security category, the Oscar went to Glenn Greenwald, Ewen MacAskill and Laura Poitras, writing for Britain's Guardian newspaper, and Bart Gellman, writing for The Washington Post, for their articles on rampant National Security Agency surveillance. Their articles were based on classified documents leaked by former NSA contractor Edward Snowden.

Snowden's actions, and the work of the journalists reporting on his revelations, have been hig! hly controversial. While there's no denying that the disclosures have triggered a national debate over government snooping that even President Obama said he welcomed, Snowden has no shortage of detractors who think he's a traitor. And the messengers have come under fire, too. Meet the Press host David Gregory — a fellow journalist, no less — asked Greenwald, the poet laureate of the Snowden saga, "Why shouldn't you be charged with a crime?"

And that's why awards matter. Being honored by a prestigious jury of their peers ratifies the value of the important work these journalists have done. And that work is valuable to society at large, not just insiders. In this case, the award says these reporters are heroes, not outlaws.

Similarly, the Polk judges honored Shawn Boburg of The Record in Bergen County, N.J., for his work in September on the much-ballyhooed lane closings at the George Washington Bridge in Fort Lee. Boburg's shoe-leather reporting set the table for the stories on the involvement of top aides to Gov. Chris Christie.

Much of the important, yet decidedly unglamorous work of journalism is carried out by local reporters monitoring the nitty-gritty of daily life. Buffeted by the challenges of the digital age, many traditional news outlets have cut back on their reporting rosters. Recognizing such work is an excellent way of underscoring its immense value.

While the Polk is a prestigious award, the big kahuna of journalism accolades is, of course, the mighty Pulitzer. This year's Pulitzers will be announced on April 14.

The number of Pulitzers won does not necessarily correlate with the overall excellence of a news outlet. But it's a hint. It also is a source of prestige and a valuable weapon for building the brand of news organizations and journalists alike.

The fact that The Philadelphia Inquirer under Gene Roberts won 17 Pulitzers in 18 years symbolized vividly the fact that the paper had been transformed from a subpar daily into a journalistic jewel.

The f! act that The New York Times won 18 Pulitzers under Bill Keller reflects the fact that Keller not only calmed the waters after the Times' turbulent Howell Raines era, but the paper was at the same time doing some excellent work.

One of the more improbable Pulitzers was the one racked up in 2010 for investigative reporting by Barbara Laker and Wendy Ruderman of the Philadelphia Daily News, a small, understaffed, indomitable tabloid perpetually threatened with extinction. Laker and Ruderman won for their courageous reporting on rampant corruption in the Philadelphia police department.

I asked Laker what winning the Pulitzer had meant to her.

"As much as we, as reporters, say we don't write stories to win awards, deep down, they do matter to us," she replied via e-mail. "They validate our work and say that it's important — a cut above the rest. In some cases, the award says your work shed light on wrongdoing and forced change. That's a sentiment every journalist wants to feel. You never forget it."

Tuesday, February 18, 2014

3 Stocks Under $10 Breaking Out on Big Volume

DELAFIELD, Wis. (Stockpickr) -- A smart trader keeps a close eye on unusual upside volume in stocks -- and unusual volume in a stock that trades below $10 should really make you sit up and pay attention.

>>5 Stocks Set to Soar on Bullish Earnings

Stocks that trade below $10 a share can make big moves to the upside very quickly, and short-term traders can try to capture some of that massive volatility. Regardless of the reason behind it, when a stock makes a large-percentage move, it is often just the start of a new major trend -- a trend that can lead to huge profits.

If you time your trade correctly, combining technical indicators with fundamental trends, discipline and sound money management, you will be well on your way to investment success.

>>5 Rocket Stocks to Buy for Big Gains

With that in mind, let's take a closer look at a several stocks under $10 that are making sharp moves higher with unusual upside volume flows.

Cinedigm

Cinedigm (CIDM) is engaged in digital cinema, software and content marketing and distribution businesses in the U.S. This stock is trading up 5% to $2.91 in Tuesday's trading session.

Tuesday's Range: $2.61-$2.94

52-Week Range: $1.25-$3.06

Tuesday's Volume: 583,000

Three-Month Average Volume: 327,968

From a technical perspective, CIDM is moving higher here with above-average volume. This stock has been uptrending strong for the last four months and change, with shares moving higher from its low of $1.48 to its recent high of $3.06. During that uptrend, shares of CIDM have been making mostly higher lows and higher highs, which is bullish technical price action. That move has now pushed shares of CIDM within range of triggering a near-term breakout trade. That trade will hit if CIDM manages to take out some near-term overhead resistance levels at $3 to its 52-week high at $3.06 with high volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in CIDM as long as it's trending above Tuesday's low of $2.60 or above its 50-day at $2.36 and then once it sustains a move or close above those breakout levels with volume that hits near or above 327,968 shares. If that breakout hits soon, then CIDM will set up to enter new 52-week-high territory, which is bullish technical price action. Some possible upside targets off that move are $4 to $4.50.

Bona Film Group

Bona Film Group (BONA) engages in the distribution of films in the People's Republic of China and internationally. This stock is trading up 2% to $6.44 in Tuesday's trading session.

Tuesday's Range: $6.30-$6.50

52-Week Range: $3.58-$7.77

Tuesday's Volume: 295,000

Three-Month Average Volume: 231,998

From a technical perspective, BONA is trending modestly higher here right above its 50-day moving average of $5.96 with above-average volume. This stock has been trending sideways and consolidating for the last three months and change, with shares moving between $5.20 on the downside and $6.92 on the upside. Shares of BONA are now quickly moving within range of triggering a big breakout trade above the upper-end of its recent sideways trading chart pattern. That trade will hit if BONA manages to take out some near-term overhead resistance levels at $6.75 to $6.92 with high volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in BONA as long as it's trending above its 50-day at $5.96 and then once it sustains a move or close above those breakout levels with volume that hits near or above 231,998 shares. If that breakout hits soon, then BONA will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance level at its 52-week high of $7.77.

Crumbs Bake Shop

Crumb Bake Shop (CRMB) offers baked goods in the U.S. This stock is trading up 8% to 76 cents per share in Tuesday's trading session.

Tuesday's Range: $0.70-$0.76

52-Week Range: $0.56-$3.01

Tuesday's Volume: 235,000

Three-Month Average Volume: 194,426

From a technical perspective, CRMB is ripping higher here back above its 50-day moving average of 72 cents per share with above-average volume. This move has also started to push shares of CRMB into breakout territory, since the stock is beginning to take out some near-term overhead resistance at 75 cents per share. Market players should look for a continuation move higher in the short-term if CRMB manages to take out Tuesday's high of 76 cents per share with strong volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in CRMB as long as it's trending above its 50-day at 72 cents per share or above more near-term support at 65 cents per share and then once it sustains a move or close above 76 cents per share with volume that hits near or above 194,426 shares. If we get that move soon, then CRMB will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at 90 cents to its 200-day moving average of $1.05.

To see more stocks under $10 that are making notable moves higher with volume, check out the Stocks Under $10 Spiking Higher With Unusual Volume portfolio on Stockpickr.

-- Written by Roberto Pedone in Delafield, Wis.


RELATED LINKS:



>>4 Big-Volume Stocks Triggering Breakouts



>>5 Shareholder Yield Stocks to Beat the S&P



>>5 Big Trades for a Correction Day

Follow Stockpickr on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook.

At the time of publication, author had no positions in stocks mentioned.

Roberto Pedone, based out of Delafield, Wis., is an independent trader who focuses on technical analysis for small- and large-cap stocks, options, futures, commodities and currencies. Roberto studied international business at the Milwaukee School of Engineering, and he spent a year overseas studying business in Lubeck, Germany. His work has appeared on financial outlets including

CNBC.com and Forbes.com.

You can follow Pedone on Twitter at www.twitter.com/zerosum24 or @zerosum24.


Monday, February 17, 2014

Food stamp use among military rises again

food stamp dollars

At military grocery stores, more food stamps have been redeemed over the years.

WASHINGTON (CNNMoney) More soldiers used food stamps to buy milk, cheese, meat and bread at military grocers last year.

Food stamp redemption at military grocers has been rising steadily since the beginning of the recession in 2008. Nearly $104 million worth of food stamps was redeemed at military commissaries in the fiscal year ended Sept. 30.

"I'm amazed, but there's a very real need," said Thomas Greer, spokesman for Operation Homefront, a nonprofit that helps soldiers on the financial brink nationwide.

Some of the growth in soldiers' redemption of food stamps reflects the weak economic recovery, especially for spouses looking for jobs. In 2012, there was a 30% unemployment rate among spouses off active-duty military who were 18 to 24 years old, according to the Military Officers Association of America, which released the survey last week.

Spouses who have to relocate every few years have a tough time finding work in the private sector.

During the recession, some states lowered eligibility for food stamps, making it easier to qualify. That could account for some of the growth in use by active-duty military, said Joyce Raezer, executive director of the National Military Family Association.

"It was easier for some of those families right on the cusp to qualify," she said.

In 2011, about 5,000 active-duty military members were on food stamps, making up less than a tenth of 1% of the 44 million on food stamps, according to the USDA, which has yet to update its figures.

Pentagon officials say they don't track who exactly is redeeming food stamps at military grocers, called commissaries. But they say that it's the bottom of the ranks, often the most junior 18 to 20-somethings who already have several children.

Base pay for a new soldier with a spouse and kid is around $20,000, just above the poverty line. Although that doesn't include housing or food allowances. The housing and food help put the income of an Army private with two years of experience a bit more than $40,000, the Pentagon says.

In 2013, Operation Homefront received 2,968 emergency requests for food help, more than any other kind of request for help. The numbers are down significantly compared to two years ago, but they're still nearly three times what they had been in 2008.

"Wh! en there are unexpected disruptions for a family with a junior (enlisted) member, it can become a challenge to put food on table," Greer said. "Cost of food remains a very real challenge."

Commercial drones start test flights   Commercial drones start test flights

The good news is that the growth in food-stamp redemption at military grocers has slowed.

The 2013 figure was only a 5% uptick from 2012, less the the 13% increase in growth in 2012 and the record 70% hike in growth in food stamps use in 2009, according to the Defense Commissary Agency.

Food stamps has been a hot topic in Washington for months, as enrollment in the anti-poverty program remains at record high levels. Currently, 47 million Americans depend on food stamps. Half of them are children and a quarter of them are seniors.

Enrollment in the program soared during the Great Recession, with nearly 15% of the population getting benefits, according to recent federal data. The average monthly benefit was $134 per person in October.

Top 10 Low Price Companies For 2015

Congress allowed cuts in the food stamps program last November, with the average recipient losing about $11 thanks to the expiration of a recession-era boost in funding. Active-duty military families were affected by those cuts. To top of page

Saturday, February 15, 2014

British Pound to Target Fresh Highs as BoE Preserves Forward-Guidance -David Song, Currency Analyst at DailyFX

Related EWU ETF Outlook for October 10, 2013 (EWU, EWZ, XBI) Why Europe May Be Your Next Buying Opportunity Related FXB British Pound Spikes Higher As U.K. Unemployment Falls To 7.1 percent ETF Outlook for Friday, November 29, 2013

"The Bank of England's Inflation Report may produce fresh highs in the British Pound should the central bank retain the 7% unemployment threshold, while preserving a positive outlook for the U.K. economy. Indeed, the BoE may show a greater willingness to normalize monetary policy sooner rather than later as the U.K. recover gathers pace, and the growing threat of an asset-bubble may encourage the central bank to raise borrowing costs later this year in order to balance the risks surrounding the region. However, BoE Governor Mark Carney may talk down bets for a rate hike in 2014 as inflation falls back to the 2% target, and the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) may lay out an interest rate forecast similar to the Federal Reserve in an effort to better-manage market expectations."

Posted-In: News Futures Forex Global Economics Markets

(c) 2014 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.

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Friday, February 14, 2014

Best Canadian Companies To Own For 2015

No investor will ever forget the financial crisis of 2008-2009. However, some might not be fully-aware of the lessons to be learned from it, writes Rob Carrick of the Globe and Mail.

Here are four investing lessons we've learned since the global financial crisis hit with full-force five years ago:

1. You need five years in the market, but ten is better.

No matter how hard they fall, the stock markets always come back. They rebounded from the tech wreck in 2000-01, and they did likewise after the more frightening crash of 2008-09. But only now, five years later, is the Canadian stock market starting to get any traction in exceeding its pre-crash high water mark.

That's why a five-year rule is mandatory when investing in stocks. If you can't hold that long, don't buy. Ten years is a much better minimum hold period. While the S&P/TSX composite index gained just 1.3% annually on average over the five years to August 31, the 10-year gain was 8.1%. Both numbers are total returns, which means dividends and share price gains are combined.

Best Canadian Companies To Own For 2015: Tsakos Energy Navigation Ltd(TNP)

Tsakos Energy Navigation Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides seaborne crude oil and petroleum product transportation services worldwide. The company offers marine transportation services for national and independent oil companies and refiners under long, medium, and short-term charters. As of August 16, 2011, its fleet consisted of 50 vessels comprising 59 tankers, including 2 dynamic positioning 2 (DP2) shuttle tankers under construction, and 1 liquefied natural gas carrier. The company was formerly known as MIF Limited and changed its name to Tsakos Energy Navigation Limited in July 2001. Tsakos Energy Navigation Limited was founded in 1993 and is based in Athens, Greece.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Rick Munarriz]

    We can start with Tsakos Energy Navigation Limited (NYSE: TNP  ) . Shares of the energy transporter moved 27% higher last week after surprising the market with a quarterly profit. Business isn't great at Tsakos. Revenue dipped slightly during the period, and a profit of $0.02 a share may not turn heads. However, analysts were bracing for a loss of $0.08 a share on a sharper decline in revenue.

Best Canadian Companies To Own For 2015: Silver Wheaton Corp(SLW)

Silver Wheaton Corp., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a silver streaming company worldwide. The company has 14 long-term silver purchase agreements and 2 long-term precious metal purchase agreements whereby it acquires silver and gold production from the counterparties located in Mexico, the United States, Canada, Greece, Sweden, Peru, Chile, Argentina, and Portugal. Silver Wheaton Corp. is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Doug Ehrman]

    It is no secret that precious metals companies have been taking a pounding for some time now. The SPDR Gold Trust (NYSEMKT: GLD  ) and iShares Silver Trust (NYSEMKT: SLV  ) , the gold and silver ETFs, have been hard hit and operating companies like First Majestic (NYSE: AG  ) and Barrick Gold (NYSE: ABX  ) have been hit even harder. Through all of these struggles, and in some cases because of them, one precious metals company continues to look attractive for the long term: Silver Wheaton (NYSE: SLW  ) .

  • [By Doug Ehrman]

    As gold prices tumbled during Friday's trading session, precious metals companies were dragged down too, including Goldcorp (NYSE: GG  ) and the gold ETF, the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSEMKT: GLD  ) . Given its recent increase in exposure to gold, Silver Wheaton's (NYSE: SLW  ) inability to escape the slide is not a big surprise. Despite increased signs of global economic instability, gold fell below $1500 for the first time since July 2011.

Best Financial Companies To Buy For 2015: Mistras Group Inc (MG)

Mistras Group, Inc. provides technology-enabled asset protection solutions to evaluate the structural integrity and reliability of critical energy, industrial, and public infrastructure worldwide. It provides traditional non-destructive testing (NDT) services; advanced NDT services; and mechanical integrity services. The company also offers software solutions, including Plant Condition Monitoring Software and Systems, an enterprise software that allows its customers for the warehousing and analysis of data. In addition, it provides Advanced Data Analysis Pattern Recognition and Neural Networks software, which enables acoustic emission (AE) experts to develop automated remote monitoring systems; AE Software Platform, a windows based real time application software; Loose Parts Monitoring Software program for monitoring, detecting, and evaluating metallic loose parts in nuclear reactor coolant systems; and Automated UT and Imaging Analysis Software for analyzing ultrasonic in spection data, and visualizing and identifying the location and size of flaws. Further, the company�s technology packages include TANKPAC for tank inspections; POWERPAC for monitoring discharges in critical power grid transformers; and Acoustic Combustion Turbine Monitoring System, an on-line system to detect stator blade cracks in gas turbines. Additionally, it offers digital radiographic systems to solve specific industrial problems; AE sensors, instruments, and turn-key systems, as well as leak monitoring and detection systems; ultrasonic equipment; vibration sensing products; and on-line monitoring services. Mistras Group, Inc. was founded in 1978 and is headquartered in Princeton Junction, New Jersey.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Monica Gerson]

    Mistras Group (NYSE: MG) is expected to post its Q1 earnings at $0.12 per share on revenue of $130.10 million.

    Posted-In: Earnings scheduleEarnings News Pre-Market Outlook Markets

  • [By Wallace Witkowski]

    Stock in Mistras Group Inc. (MG) �rose 6.9% to $23.99 on light volume after the company raised its revenue outlook for the year to a range of $590 million to $615 million. Analysts expected $592.1 million.

Best Canadian Companies To Own For 2015: CNH Global N.V. (CNH)

CNH Global N.V. manufactures, markets, and distributes a line of agricultural and construction equipment and parts worldwide. It operates in three segments: Agricultural Equipment, Construction Equipment, and Financial Services. The Agricultural Equipment segment provides tractors, combine harvesters, hay and forage equipment, seeding and planting equipment, tillage equipment, and sprayers, as well as cotton picker packagers, and sugar cane and grape harvesters primarily under the Case IH and New Holland brands. The Construction Equipment segment offers heavy construction equipment, such as crawler and wheeled excavators, wheel loaders, graders, dozers, and articulated haul trucks; and light construction equipment, including backhoe loaders, skid steer and tracked loaders, mini and midi excavators, compact wheel loaders, and telehandlers primarily under the Case and New Holland Construction brands. This segment serves construction companies, municipalities, local governmen ts, rental fleet owners, quarrying and aggregate mining companies, waste management companies, forestry-related concerns, contractors, residential builders, utilities, road construction companies, landscapers, logistics companies, and farmers. The Financial Services segment provides financial products and services, including retail financing for the purchase or lease of the company�s and other manufacturers� new and used products; and facilitates the sale of insurance products and other financing programs to retail customers. This segment also offers wholesale financing to its dealers and rental equipment operators, as well as financing options to dealers to finance working capital, real estate, and other fixed assets and maintenance equipment. CNH Global N.V. sells and distributes its products through dealers and distributors in approximately 170 countries. The company was founded in 1991 and is based in Amsterdam, the Netherlands. CNH Global N.V. is a subsidiary of Fiat Netherlands Holding N.V.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Dan Caplinger]

    Kubota isn't the only company aggressively challenging Deere. AGCO (NYSE: AGCO  ) has made aggressive expansion efforts in Africa, working with specialty agricultural lender Rabobank to try to help farmers on the continent buy more farming equipment. Moreover, both AGCO and CNH Global (NYSE: CNH  ) have made emerging markets like Latin America a high priority, reaping benefits from the more rapidly expanding economies among Latin American nations. Deere has targeted Latin America as well, but it hasn't been as aggressive with its international efforts as its peers. Deere's stock price has reflected its lack of initiative in expanding globally:

  • [By vaninaegea]

    In august, the Association of Equipment Manufacturers (AEM) published the mid-year review for the agricultural sector. Their findings point to a slowdown for the industry, highlighting a 9.5% decline on exports through the first half of 2013. Also, late soybean planting in the USA is expected to compound the industry�� slowdown. So, what are the prospects for AGCO (AGCO), CNH Global (CNH), and Deere & Co. (DE) under such conditions?

  • [By Mike the PhD]

    Historically the stock prices of Deere (DE) and other agricultural equipment firms and retailers like Case-New Holland (CNH), Titan Machinery (TITN), AGCO (AGCO), Tractor Supply (TSCO), Valmont (VAL), and Lindsay (LNN) have tended to closely track the price of corn. When corn prices go up, farmers tend to make more money, and they spend that money on new equipment from Deere and other firms. This relationship is especially strong for Deere and Corn, but it holds true for all of the stocks above to some extent. (Correlation coefficients between all of the stock prices above and corn are statistically significant to at least the 5% level, see my blog here for more details.)

Best Canadian Companies To Own For 2015: CapitalSource Inc (CSE)

CapitalSource Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides financial products to small and middle market businesses in the United States. It offers depository products and services, such as savings and money market accounts, individual retirement account products, and certificates of deposit. The company also provides senior secured real estate and asset-based loans, and cash flow loans, which have a first priority lien in the collateral securing the loan. Its asset-based loans are collateralized by specified assets of the client, primarily the client�s accounts/notes receivable, inventory, and machinery; and real estate loans are secured by senior mortgages on real property. The company focuses on providing equipment loans and leases; loans to healthcare providers; commercial real estate and multifamily real estate loans; loans secured by timeshare, auto, and other consumer receivables; student loans; traditional life insurance premium finance loans; and loans to technology companies, small businesses, dentists, physicians, pharmacists, and optometrists, as well as to companies in the physical security, government security, and public safety sectors. It operates through 21 retail bank branches in southern and central California, as well as lending offices in the United States. The company was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Los Angeles, California.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By David Hanson and Matt Koppenheffer]

    In this segment of The Motley Fool's everything-financials show,�Where the Money Is, banking analysts Matt Koppenheffer and David Hanson discuss the recent announcement of PacWest Bancorp's (NASDAQ: PACW  ) intention to buy CapitalSource (NYSE: CSE  ) .

Best Canadian Companies To Own For 2015: Swisher Hygiene Inc.(SWSH)

Swisher Hygiene Inc. provides hygiene and sanitation solutions in North America and internationally. Its solutions include cleaning and sanitizing products and services designed to promote cleanliness and sanitation in commercial and residential environments. The company involves in the sale of consumable products, such as soaps, paper, cleaning chemicals, detergents, and supplies, together with the rental and servicing of dish machines and other equipment for the dispensing of those products; sale and rental of facility service items requiring regular maintenance and cleaning, such as floor mats, mops, and bar towels; provision of manual cleaning services for facilities; and provision of solid waste collection services. It serves customers in a range of end-markets, including foodservice, hospitality, retail, industrial, and healthcare industries. Swisher Hygiene Inc. offers its services through 69 company owned operations and 10 franchise operations located throughout th e United States and Canada; and through 10 master license agreements covering the United Kingdom, Ireland, Portugal, the Netherlands, Singapore, the Philippines, Taiwan, Korea, Hong Kong, Macau, China, and Mexico. The company was founded in 1986 and is headquartered in Charlotte, North Carolina.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Lisa Levin]

    Swisher Hygiene (NASDAQ: SWSH) shares touched a new 52-week low of $0.732. Swisher Hygiene appointed William Pierce as its new president and CEO.

    Territorial Bancorp (NASDAQ: TBNK) shares touched a new 52-week low of $21.31. Territorial Bancorp shares have dropped 9.43% over the past 52 weeks, while the S&P 500 index has gained 16.18% in the same period.

Best Canadian Companies To Own For 2015: United States Steel Corporation(X)

United States Steel Corporation produces and sells steel mill products in North America and Central Europe. It operates in three segments: Flat-rolled Products (Flat-rolled), U. S. Steel Europe (USSE), and Tubular Products (Tubular). The Flat-rolled segment offers slabs, rounds, strip mill plates, sheets, and tin mill products, as well as iron ore and coke. This segment serves service center, conversion, transportation, construction, container, and appliance and electrical markets in North America. The USSE segment offers slabs, sheets, strip mill plates, tin mill products, and spiral welded pipes, as well as heating radiators and refractory ceramic materials. This segment serves the European construction, service center, conversion, container, transportation, and appliance and electrical, as well as and oil, gas, and petrochemical markets. The Tubular segment offers seamless and electric resistance welded steel casing and tubing; and standard, and line pipe and mechanical tubing. It primarily serves customers in the oil, gas, and petrochemical markets. The company also provides transportation services, including railroad and barge operations. In addition, it owns, develops, and manages various real estate assets, which include approximately 200,000 acres of surface rights primarily in Alabama, Illinois, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania; participates in joint ventures that are developing real estate projects in Alabama, Maryland, and Illinois; and owns approximately 4,000 acres of land in Ontario, Canada. The company was founded in 1901 and is headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Roberto Pedone]

    Another stock that looks poised to trigger a big breakout trade is U.S. Steel (X), which is an integrated steel producer of flat-rolled and tubular products with major production operations in North America and Europe. This stock has been hit hard by the sellers so far in 2013, with shares off by 22%.

    If you take a look at the chart for U.S. Steel, you'll notice that this stock has been trending sideways and consolidating for the last three months and change, with shares moving between $15.76 on the downside and $19.70 on the upside. Shares of X have just started to trend back above its 50-day moving average of $17.87 a share and it's quickly pushing within range of triggering a big breakout trade above the upper-end of its sideways trading chart pattern. If this breakout hits soon, then it would take X out of its consolidation pattern and potentially into a new uptrend.

    Traders should now look for long-biased trades in X if it manages to break out above some near-term overhead resistance levels at $19.26 to $19.40 and then once it clears more resistance at $19.70 with high volume. Look for a sustained move or close above those levels with volume that hits near or above its three-month average action 7.31 million shares. If that breakout triggers soon, then X will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at $21.30 to $24, or even $25 a share.

    Traders can look to buy X off any weakness to anticipate that breakout and simply use a stop that sits right below its 50-day at $17.87 a share, or below more support at $16.86 a share. One could also buy X off strength once it takes out those breakout levels with volume and then simply use a stop that sits a comfortable percentage from your entry point.

    This stock is another favorite target of the short-sellers, since the current short interest as a percentage of the float for X is very high at 30.1%. This stock could easily see a powerful short-squeez

  • [By Alex Planes]

    The first Morgan megadeal actually took place in 1892, when he brought Thomas Edison's company together with several other leading electric ventures to form General Electric (NYSE: GE  ) . Morgan's greatest triumph came in 1901, when he formed U.S. Steel (NYSE: X  ) , the first billion-dollar company in American history. A year later, Morgan merged farm-implement pioneer McCormick with other agricultural equipment companies to create International Harvester, the predecessor of Navistar.�All three of these companies held spots on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI  ) for decades at a time, which -- when including JPMorgan Chase itself -- makes J.P. Morgan the only businessman in American history directly responsible for the creation of four Dow components, past or present.

Best Canadian Companies To Own For 2015: Thomson Reuters Corp(TRI)

Thomson Reuters Corporation provides intelligent information for businesses and professionals worldwide. The company allows market participants to connect, access content, and trade in a secure environment through Thomson Reuters Eikon desktop, Thomson Reuters Elektron network, content integration and management technology, content feeds and databases, and transactions infrastructure solutions that support buy- and sell-side customers to trade in foreign exchange, fixed income and derivatives, equities, exchange-traded instruments, and commodities and energy markets. It also offers information, analytics, workflow, and technology solutions to buy-side and off-trading floor customers; access to liquidity in over-the-counter markets, trade execution, and connections for market participants and financial professionals? communities; and a suite of solutions offering informed outcomes to regulated industries and law firms. In addition, the company provides critical information , decision support tools, and software and services to legal, investigation, business, and government professionals; integrated tax compliance and accounting software and services for accounting and law firms, corporations, and government professionals; intellectual property and scientific resources that enable its customers to discover, develop, and deliver innovations; and data analytics, and performance benchmarking solutions and services to healthcare sector. Further, it offers coverage of global, regional, and national news in 20 languages covering politics, business, finance, entertainment, lifestyle, technology, health, science, and sports; and engages in advertising-supported direct-to-consumer publishing activities of Reuters.com and its network of Websites, mobile applications, and electronic out-of-home displays. The company was formerly known as The Thomson Corporation and changed its name to Thomson Reuters Corporation in April 2008. The company is headquartered in New York, New York.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Rich Smith]

    Thomson Reuters (NYSE: TRI  ) has acquired Canadian trademark search, monitoring, and screening firm Onscope, Thomson announced Tuesday.

  • [By Bill Smith]

    FDS operates in a highly competitive industry, some with more resources. Their competitors include:
    Thomson Reuters Corp. (TRI)BloombergInteractive (IDC)MSCI Inc. (MXB)Morningstar Inc. (MORN)Track Data Corp. (TRAC)Edgar Online (EDGR)McGraw-Hill (MHP )

Best Canadian Companies To Own For 2015: NEW GOLD INC.(NGD)

New Gold Inc. engages in the acquisition, exploration, extraction, processing, and reclamation of mineral properties. The company primarily explore for gold, silver, and copper deposits. Its operating properties include the Mesquite gold mine in the United States; the Cerro San Pedro gold-silver mine in Mexico; and the Peak gold-copper mine in Australia. The company also has development projects, including the New Afton gold, silver, and copper project in Canada; and a 30% interest in the El Morro copper-gold project in Chile. The company was formerly known as DRC Resources Corporation and changed its name to New Gold Inc. in June 2005. New Gold Inc. was founded in 1980 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Ben Levisohn]

    Even bad news has failed to dent the rise in gold stocks today. NewGold (NGD), for instance, has gained 1.8% to $7.49 despite the fact that the wall of one of its mines collapsed. The Wall Street Journal has the details:

  • [By Ben Levisohn]

    One group of stocks not feeling the optimism today: Gold miners. With fewer concerns that a U.S. attack on Syria will be disruptive and more evidence that tapering will begin this month, the price of the precious metal has dropped 1.6% to $1,388.90 an ounce–and gold stocks are falling with it. New Gold (NGD), for one, has dropped 3% to $6.55, while Barrick Gold (ABX) has fallen 1.3% to $19.25.

Best Canadian Companies To Own For 2015: ING Group N.V. (IDG)

ING Groep N.V., a financial services company, provides banking, investment, life insurance, and retirement services for individuals, families, small businesses, corporations, institutions, and governments worldwide. The company provides savings accounts, mortgage loans, consumer loans, credit card services, and investment products, as well as current account services and payments systems; life and non-life insurance products; asset management products and services; mortgage products; and risk management services. It also offers commercial banking products and services, including lending products, such as structured finance; payment and cash management, and treasury services; and specialized and trade finance, derivatives, corporate finance, debt and equity capital markets, leasing, factoring, and supply chain finance. In addition, the company provides individual endowment, and term and whole life insurance products, as well as traditional, unit-linked, and variable annuity life insurance products for individual and group customers; fire, motor, disability, transport, accident, and third party liability insurance products; employee benefits products and pension funds; retirement services, fixed annuities, mutual funds, and broker-dealer services; and disability insurance products and complementary services for employers and self-employed professionals comprising dentists, general practitioners, and lawyers. Further, the company offers investment management services. ING Groep N.V. operates a network of approximately 280 branches in the Netherlands; and 773 branches in Belgium. The company was founded in 1991 and is headquartered in Amsterdam, the Netherlands. ING Groep N.V. is a subsidiary of Stichting ING Aandelen.

Best Canadian Companies To Own For 2015: Goldcorp Incorporated(GG)

Goldcorp Inc. engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and operation of precious metal properties in Canada, the United States, Mexico, and Central and South America. It produces and sells gold, silver, copper, lead, and zinc. The company was founded in 1954 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By idahansen]

    The exchange traded fund for gold, SPDR Gold Shares, is up for the last week, month, and quarter of market action. It is the much the same story for the exchange traded fund for silver, iShares Silver Trust. There is also a bullish outlook for publicly traded companies in the sector such as Barrick Gold (NYSE: ABX), Wishbone Gold PLC (PINK: WISHY), and Goldcorp (NYSE: GG).

  • [By Jim Jubak]

    As sure as April showers bring May flowers, January brings reserve updates from gold mining companies that foreshadow the annual earnings reports that these companies will issue in February. Yamana Gold (AUY) and Randgold Resources (GOLD) initiate the February earnings parade from gold mining companies, with reports on February 2 and 3, respectively. Kinross Gold (KGC) follows on February 12 with Goldcorp (GG) and Barrick Gold (ABX) reporting on February 13. Newmont Mining (NEM) issues its numbers on February 20.

  • [By Doug Ehrman]

    With the price of gold cooling off over the last week, the roller-coaster ride for both the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSEMKT: GLD  ) and for big miners like Goldcorp (NYSE: GG  ) , Barrick Gold (NYSE: ABX  ) , and Newmont Mining (NYSE: NEM  ) is in full effect, and the rush back to gold seems over. A drop in demand would normally signal the end of a trend, but Dennis Gartman of "The Gartman Letter" urges us to think about gold in a new light 芒�� as a currency.

  • [By Ben Levisohn]

    January is nearing an end, and that means one thing: Gold miners will start announcing earnings. New Gold (NGD) will get things started on Feb 6, followed by Kinross Gold (KGC) on Feb. 12 and Goldcorp (GG) and Barrick Gold (ABX) on Feb. 13.

Wednesday, February 12, 2014

Boomer entrepreneurs bet nest eggs on dreams

Randy Biehl spent 25 years as a U.S. probation and parole officer. Now he owns and runs his own winery in Upstate New York.

Suzie Ford was an out-of-work banker and her husband, Tom, was a career airline pilot who, in Suzie's words, "never saw his family, but loved to brew beer at home." Now they own a brewery in Charlotte.

Jan Morris was a part-time lawyer and part-time art teacher. Then she lost the lawyer part of her job. Now she and her husband, Chuck, own The Hardware Distillery Co. in Hoodsport, Wash.

Call it what you want: living your dream, encore careers or just gambling on your future. These Baby Boomers are doing what they love. And they used their retirement savings to do it, using a process called rollovers-as-business-startups (ROBS) to finance their businesses. With this approach, budding entrepreneurs can use their retirement funds to finance or grow a business without incurring taxes or penalties.

RETIREMENT LIVING: Boomers take midlife cues to pursue passions

This is how it works: The retirement account is rolled over into a new retirement fund. And that new retirement fund, in effect, becomes a shareholder in the new business.

Some planners say that type of funding is risky. "You are using your retirement to fund a business start-up," says Katherine W. Dean, senior vice president and managing director of wealth management planning at Wells Fargo Wealth Management. "There is enormous risk in that. You have to factor that in as well."

But David Nilssen, co-founder and CEO of Guidant Financial, says that type of alternative funding may sound risky, but "it can be less risky than using traditional financing." Guidant is a Seattle company that specializes in alternative financing and that Nilssen says has helped create more than 8,500 businesses, including those launched by Jan and Chuck Morris, Suzie and Tom Ford and Randy Biehl. And in none of these three cases are they looking back.

Eveningside Vineyards, Cambria, N.Y.

Randy Bie! hl, 54, says he was in his 30s and living in suburbia when he and his wife, Karen, first started talking about wine. "Wine people, once they get into wine, tend to be carried away," he says.

It continued to be a dream until 13 years ago, when Biehl planned his vineyard. Then, 10 years ago Eveningside Vineyards opened to the public in Cambia, N.Y., near Niagara Falls.

"When we first opened, I was working for the government and opened the tasting room on weekends," Biehl says. "For the first five years I worked full time and ran this business. Now I just have one job."

It was five years ago that he needed to expand and add a building. That's when he needed alternative financing.

The vineyard produces about 1,500 cases of wine a year and has grown to 10 employees. The wine is sold through the tasting room, the Internet and the larger wine stores in the Buffalo area.

"I left the government, but not retired," he says. "When will I retire like a normal person? I don't think about that. I'm 54. I love what I do. I think it's a good gig if you're doing something that you love."

Website: Eveningside.com.

NoDa Brewing Co., Charlotte

Todd and Suzie Ford were ready for change. Suzie, 46, lost her job as a banker when her company was bought out in 2009. "Todd's airline job kept taking him away from home more and more," she says. "We were looking to get him home more, and to do something different."

Todd, 51, has been home brewing since 1995, and their friends and family kept pushing them to sell his brews. So the couple starting looking at the brewing industry.

"There were one or two breweries in Charlotte," Suzie says. The metro area has a population of 1.7 million. Craft brewing was a hot ticket. So, the site was right for it. The question was how did we go about funding it."

"Two things happened," she says. "We found a local banker who believed in us and gave us a small equipment loan." Then they heard about Guidant through a friend. "We were abl! e to roll! our 401(k)s into the business for capital to get started."

RETIREMENT: Planning for your future

The brewery started with just Suzie, as Todd continued his job as a pilot. But before the brewery actually opened, he quit his job and rolled his 401(k) into the business also.

"It was a significant jump," says Todd. "I had reached the pinnacle of my career in airlines. I had been in for 19 years. I had peaked out, waiting for someone in front of me to retire so I could improve my status."

The couple have four children, but waited until their youngest was a sophomore in college before embarking on the venture. Now their oldest son also works at the brewery. The couple live at the brewery, which makes things a lot easier.

Suzie and Todd Ford, owners of NoDa Brewing Co. in Charlotte, N.C.(Photo: NoDa Brewin)

The brewery produced 1,600 barrels in the first year, and 4,000 in the second year. That is expected to double this year, Todd says. They have 22 employees, most part time.

"We knew that it was a huge risk," says Todd. "We also knew there was a sacrifice. I had been working for a company. Bad business decisions put our company in a bad situation. We felt better having control of our destiny. Good or bad, we would be in control."

Website: www.nodabrewing.com

The Hardware Distillery, Hoodsport, Wash.

Jan and Chuck Morris decided to try her dream in a little town in Washington state where they already owned a cabin. They bought an old hardware store in the center of town, and after two years, finally got the permits necessary to open their distillery.

"It took a long time to get permitting," she says. "The federal and state were easy. This was a first in Mason County, and it took ! them a co! uple of years to see it wouldn't blow up the town."

The company has three stills. They produce their products in the winter, and sell them in the summer.

"This past Memorial Day we opened our doors and had one gin," she says. "We had a goal of how much we wanted to sell. We made three times the goal in the summer. By end of the summer we had three more."

The company makes two gins, one to go with crabs and another to go with oysters. But they also produce a variety of other products, using only local ingredients. They produce a vodka made from pears, and an aquavit. And they are working on a whiskey.

The specialty is Bees Knees, a distilled honey mead that starts as 80% honey and 20% fruit. They have plum and peach versions.

Chuck and Jan Morris: Co-owners of The Hardware Distillery in Hoodsport, Wash.(Photo: Dan Driscoll)

Chuck, 63, still works as a structural engineer, but is the distiller. Jan, 62, says they don't have employees yet, and they figure they will continue to work at their other jobs for another nine months.

They used their IRAs to fund the business.

"I know some people think it's weird to start a business at our age," she said. "I'm glad we had the opportunity to use retirement money to start a career that's fulfilling to both of us."

Website: www.thehardwaredistillery.com.

Saturday, February 8, 2014

Analyst Hits Home Run in Akamai

Akamai Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ: AKAM) has been a top name to buy at Oppenheimer for some time. This last week their due diligence paid as the company absolutely blew out numbers.

Akamai reported fourth-quarter 2013 earnings of 55 cents per share, which increased 10.0% on both a year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter basis. Earnings were above the higher-end of management's guided range of 49 cents to 53 cents per share. The stock followed through on the earnings and guidance strength and was up over 20%.The upbeat report followed days of hand-wringing on Wall Street about Akamai perhaps losing Apple as a big customer for bandwidth. That didn't happen and the stock exploded.

Oppenheimer made the stock one of their top technology names in late January. It was also just last weekend that Barron’s talked up the stock.

Akamai has been able to offer scalable benefits associated with offloading services from client infrastructures, allowing clients to have fewer hard assets in place while providing an ongoing revenue stream. This translates into 125,000+ servers operating dedicated, hybrid cloud and true cloud servers to provide IT and, increasingly, security services, in a vast array of companies across a widely diversified group of industries.

Top 5 Canadian Stocks To Watch Right Now

With an impressive client list that grows each quarter, the company is certainly firing on all cylinders. The Oppenheimer price target remains at $60 for now, and the consensus is at $57.44. Akamai was trading Friday afternoon at $56.61.

Friday, February 7, 2014

Good News, Bad News For SodaStream Amid Coca-Cola, Green Mountain Hoookup

Last night, Coca-Cola’s (KO) partnership with Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR) was the pop heard round the world, as Coke placed a big bet on home carbonation. Today, investors are trying to figure out what it means for SodaStream International (SODA) and its own home carbonation business.

Getty Images for SodaStream

KeyBanc’s Akshay Jagdale and Lubi Kutua expect SodaStream, which had dropped 28% so far this year, to keep losing its fizz. They write:

We believe [Coca-Cola's] decision to partner with [Green Mountain Coffee Roasters] on its cold beverage platform validates the home carbonation category (i.e., significantly mitigates fears of "fad" risk), but, more importantly, signals who [Coca-Cola] believes the leader in the category is likely to be.

Given [Coca-Cola's] endorsement of [Green Mountain Coffee Roasters] as its single-serve partner in the fast-growing home carbonation category, as well as [SodaStream's] recent poor operating results (the Company negatively preannounced 4Q13 earnings on January 13, 2014), we believe investors are likely to view [Green Mountain Coffee Roasters] as the emerging leader in home carbonation, and we, therefore, expect that the recent negative sentiment on [SodaStream's] stock is likely to deteriorate further. As such, we believe current developments in the home carbonation category warrant a more cautious view on [SodaStream's] stock, and we are therefore downgrading our rating to a HOLD (from a BUY) until we see a more compelling reason to own the name.

Uh uh, says Citigroup’s Wendy Nicholson, who thinks SodaStream can benefit from the deal between Coca-Cola and Green Mountain Coffee Roasters. She writes:

We think there are several things to consider with regard to what this deal means for [SodaStream]. 1. This deal validates the home carbonation category, and when [Coca-Cola] + [Green Mountain Coffee Roasters] start to advertise and market the cold platform, we think that could be good for [SodaStream] (especially as we believe [SodaStream] will be a considerably lower-priced system than the [Green Mountain Coffee Roasters] cold drink platform). 2. We hope [SodaStream] hurries up and signs an agreement with [PepsiCo (PEP) (or Dr. Pepper Snapple (DPS), or crazier yet, Nestle/Nespresso) so that they too can offer premium/popular branded flavors to make with their machine. 3. We think the cost to compete likely goes up, and we suspect [SodaStream's] marketing expenses will rise. 4. We are glad that [SodaStream] has another 12+ month head start to figure out how to leverage its first-mover advantage in the category. 5. We think folks should remember that ~2/3 of [SodaStream's] profits come from Europe, where [SodaStream's] sales have grown 20%+ in each of the last two years, and where [Green Mountain Coffee Roasters] barely plays. Of course [Coca-Cola] can help hasten [Green Mountain Coffee Roasters'] entry into Europe, but in all practical terms, Europe should still be a good business for [SodaStream] for years to come.

Hot Internet Companies To Invest In 2014

Investors appear to agree with the latter, if only because SodaStream might now be a ready takeover target for one of Coca-Cola’s competitors (personally, I wonder how much of an impediment SodaStream’s West Bank factories might be to a deal). Shares of SodaStream have gained, while Green Mountain Coffee has, Coca-Cola has, PepsiCo has and Dr. Pepper Snapple has.

Thursday, February 6, 2014

Sorry Cleveland, United Continental’s Hub Closure is Good News for Airlines

On Monday, United Continental (UAL) announced that Cleveland would no longer be used as a hub. Imperial Capital’s Bob McAdoo and Scott Buck explain what United Continental stands to gain–and why it could be good news for American Airlines (AAL) and Delta Air Lines (DAL), too:

Associated Press

We view the reduction in service at Cleveland as an important step in closing [United Continental's] performance gap with industry leader Delta Air Lines. While there remains significant work to do, we believe the 4Q13 results highlighted the progress that United has already made…

We believe both American Airlines Group and Delta Air Lines will also be beneficiaries of this change in Cleveland. Passengers from cities that are losing regional connecting service through Cleveland will now be required to connect through other airports including hubs operated by both American Airlines and Delta. These connections could include Atlanta and Charlotte to the south, Chicago or Minneapolis to the west and Philadelphia to the east. As a result, we expect both American Airlines and Delta to benefit somewhat from incremental traffic driven by United's Cleveland reduction.

Shares of United Continental have dropped 1% to $43.53 at 3:11 p.m., while American Airlines has fallen 1.2% to $33.66 and Delta Air Lines has declined 0.1% to $29.92.

Wednesday, February 5, 2014

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. Is on a Roll, But the Stock Is Still Too Pricey

Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE: CMG  ) turned in a stellar performance in Q4, recovering from a weak start to 2013. Total revenue increased more than 20% for the quarter and 17.7% for the full year. Meanwhile, comparable restaurant sales rose 9.3% last quarter and 5.6% for all of 2013.

2013 was another good year for Chipotle.

I love Chipotle. The food is tasty, and I also appreciate the company's commitment to sourcing ingredients responsibly and giving its best employees plenty of opportunities to move up the management ranks.

However, I don't like Chipotle stock very much; it's even pricier than the food! While the company has plenty of growth left, there are other investment opportunities with similar growth potential at much more attractive prices.

Chipotle remains popular
Chipotle's Q4 comparable restaurant sales growth was the company's strongest result since Q1 of 2012. In some ways it was even better, because menu price increases contributed to Chipotle's sales growth in late 2011 and early 2012, whereas last quarter's gain was driven by higher traffic at its restaurants.

In light of the stronger-than-expected results, Chipotle's management raised their forecast for 2014 comparable restaurant sales growth. The company now projects a low- to mid-single-digit gain, excluding the effect of any menu price increase.

Additionally, Chipotle CFO Jack Hartung stated on the company's recent conference call that Chipotle is likely to raise menu prices during the third quarter. This will allow Chipotle to recoup the impact of commodity cost increases, which drove a slight decline in its restaurant-level operating margin last year. In other words, not only will a menu price increase boost sales growth further, but it will also push Chipotle's profit margin higher.

The price is the problem
Given that Chipotle has strong traffic and sales momentum entering 2014 and the company's margins could get a lift later this year from a menu price increase, what's not to like?

The answer is valuation. At this time last year, Chipotle stock traded for around $300, which seemed fairly attractive. By contrast, the stock has jumped to more than $540 and touched an all-time record high of $568.90 last week!

CMG Chart

Chipotle 5 Year Stock Chart, data by YCharts

At that price, investors are paying more than 50 times Chipotle's 2013 earnings. That's about 3 times the market average. To justify that price, Chipotle will need to deliver a stunning level of long-term earnings growth.

How fast can Chipotle grow?
Chipotle's recent results demonstrate that the company is far from saturating the market. However, it's hard to avoid the fact that growth is gradually tailing off. Chipotle added 180 net new restaurants in 2012 and 185 in 2013, and it is projecting 180 to 195 new restaurant openings in 2014. While the absolute number of store openings is similar, the growth rate in Chipotle's store count has slipped from around 15% in 2012 to a projected 11%-12% in 2014.

Chipotle may have trouble pushing its growth beyond the recent pace of just under 200 new restaurants annually. Unlike many of its competitors, Chipotle does not franchise. This allows it to offer a more consistent, high-quality experience, but it also creates organizational barriers to faster growth. (Think about it this way: if there are 250 working days in a year, Chipotle's development team is choosing a new restaurant site almost every day!)

Within each restaurant, opportunities for future sales growth are limited as well. Chipotle frequently has long lines at peak lunch and dinner times. This has led to a focus on "throughput" -- speeding up service times -- in recent years. The company has made good progress in this regard, setting a new record last quarter.

Still, there are physical limits to how quickly Chipotle can serve customers! Better practices may allow the company to increase peak-hour transactions by 10% or 20% over time, but these initiatives aren't going to double sales. Chipotle is now looking into mobile payment systems, which may speed up checkout times, but this isn't likely to be a panacea, either.

Foolish conclusion
I am confident in Chipotle's long-term prospects, and I think the company could easily grow sales at a 15% annual pace through the end of the decade. However, even that level of growth isn't enough to justify Chipotle's current valuation.

For example, Spirit Airlines (NASDAQ: SAVE  ) has been growing even faster than Chipotle in recent years and has equally good long-term growth prospects. Yet it is trading for less than 20 times 2013 earnings! Some of that difference is warranted by the riskiness of the airline industry, but the risk/reward trade-off for Spirit still seems much more enticing.

Long-term investors in Chipotle who buy today and hold for 10-20 years are unlikely to lose money, due to the company's consistent growth and large opportunity. That said, Chipotle's total return is still likely to trail that of the broader market due to its pricey valuation today.

A more compelling growth pick
Opportunities to get wealthy from a single investment don't come around often, but they do exist, and our chief technology officer believes he's found one. In this free report, Jeremy Phillips shares the single company that he believes could transform not only your portfolio, but also your entire life. To learn the identity of this stock for free and see why Jeremy is putting more than $100,000 of his own money into it, all you have to do is click here now.

Monday, February 3, 2014

Ford vs. General Motors - Who's In The Driver Seat?

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The past five or six years have been a real roller coaster for companies in the American auto industry, much as companies in many American industries. The fate of the big three American auto manufacturers – Ford (NYSE: F), General Motors (NYSE: GM), and Chrysler – were in as much doubt as Detroit itself.

But while the city of Detroit has yet to bounce back, it can be argued that the American auto manufacturer has made a true turn around. Here we will take a look at the two remaining major American auto manufacturers and review how their stocks performed in 2013.

Investors who bought into Ford stock at the beginning of 2013 purchased at a time of a serious upswing. Ford, which had once practically been left for dead, began to move higher in summer 2012, and was still gaining steam on January 2, 2013 – with a price of $13. The stock proved that its rally had legs as it continued higher through much of the year, topping out at $18.02 on October 24.

Related: Exxon Mobil Or Chevron: Which Is The Better Bet?

Investors who sold at the high would have earned a nice return of 38.6 percent. After its October high, however, the stock sold off significantly, closing the year at $15.43. Investors who held the stock for the entire year were left with an 18.7 percent return – well below market averages.

General Motors began 2013 with a stock price of $29. The stock’s 2013 performance, combined with that of Ford, helped to convince skeptics that the American auto industry really could mount a historic come back.

GM spent most of 2013 going higher, seeing very little pull back as it rose. Investors who held on to the stock for the entire year would have been pleased, as they saw their investment close at $40.87 - near yearly highs. For the year, General Motors stock returned 40.9 percent – well ahead of the Dow and S&P.

The tales of General Motors and Ford are different in many ways. But they both share the same point of inflection in the 2009 “auto bailouts.” These companies, which were once the shining stars of American capitalism and industry, had been reduced to near ruins, and required public help in order to survive. Considering this fact, it is truly amazing that both auto manufacturers are not only surviving, but thriving.

General Motors certainly had a better year than Ford in terms of stock price in 2013. But, whether or not you were an investor in these stocks last year, they can be used to serve as yet another example of American perseverance and ingenuity for all investors and businesspeople.

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Saturday, February 1, 2014

How to Set Your Retirement Goals

How to Set Your Retirement GoalsGetty Images Intention is powerful. We don't give it enough thought. Most of us go though life unintentionally falling into a career path, unintentionally meeting (or not meeting) a spouse, unintentionally gaining weight and so on. Much like a pinball working its way through the machine, life swats at us, and we react. We unintentionally accumulate investments in the same way. Perhaps you get a certificate of deposit. Then there is that annuity one person sold you. There is that Apple (AAPL) stock you "had" to buy and that mutual fund you read about in the latest finance magazine, along with the funds inside your 401(k) plan. Pretty soon, you'll have a collection of investments that may or may not be aligned toward a common goal. If this sounds like you, what can you do to bring some intentionality to your investment choices? Here are three things you can do: 1. Get clear on what your goals are. The first thing you must do is understand your goals. I like the idea of writing a job description for your investments. If you are 40 years old, do you care about the fluctuations in your portfolio value this week or next month? Probably not -- and if you do care, either you don't understand investing or you should stick with safe investments that aren't going to have a lot of volatility. At 40, your primary concern should be a strategy that gives you the highest probability of maximizing returns over a 20-year time horizon. If you are 64 years old, retiring next year, and will need to withdraw $50,000 from your investments, do you care about your portfolio value this week or next month? You bet you do. You don't want to sell $50,000 of investments after a major market correction. At this point, you need to make sure your near-term cash flow needs can be met, regardless of the ups and downs of the market in the year or two after you retire. A laddered bond strategy may be perfect. What about a Roth individual retirement account? With a Roth IRA, you can always withdraw your original contributions at any age without taxes or penalties owed. In that case, should your Roth IRA have a dual goal, with a portion of your contributions invested safely as your emergency reserve fund, and any excess invested aggressively, with the idea you won't touch it until age 70 or older? For those without an adequate emergency fund, this might be the perfect job description for their Roth IRA. Happy young couple discussing with a financial agent their new investment. 2. Evaluate the most effective solutions. Once you have a goal, you evaluate the choices most likely to help you achieve the goal. This is more difficult than you may think. Often, a simple portfolio of only a few index funds is more likely to achieve your goal than something far more complex. For example, low costs have been proven to be one of the best indicators of a smart fund choice, yet people are still drawn to funds with fancy strategies and high fees. There are hedge funds, private placements, options writing (puts and calls), precious metals funds, biotech funds and many other fun, more exotic choices. But are they any more effective at helping you achieve financial security than a plain portfolio of index funds? Probably not. Inside your 401(k) plan, the most effective solutions are often the professionally designed model portfolios or target-date retirement funds. Outside your 401(k) plan, such options work just as well. You can include a few small tweaks so investments that have high turnover or generate a lot of interest income are tucked inside your retirement accounts, while investments most likely to deliver long-term capital gains and qualified dividends are held in nonretirement accounts. This type of tweak will help you take advantage of the lower tax rate on long-term capital gains and qualified dividends. What about solutions that provide guaranteed income, like a variable annuity with an income rider? If you are 10 to 15 years from retirement and your goal is to create a certain level of income that is available to you at your retirement date, this annuity is like insurance for a portion of your retirement money. It insures a minimum level of retirement income. 3. Begin a transition plan. Once you are clear about your goal and the most effective solutions, you can make a transition plan. Most of the time there will be tax consequences, and perhaps surrender charges, if you rearrange your entire investment collection at once. This is why a transition plan is needed. Your transition plan accounts for all tax consequences, your overall allocation and risk level and fees and penalties. For example, as you near retirement, you may know you need to reduce risk. You may be able to strategically wait to realize capital gains until you will be in the zero percent capital gains rate the year after you retire. To keep your risk level appropriate, maybe you reduce risk in your retirement accounts now, as there are no tax consequences to making changes within those types of accounts. Then you plan on reducing risk in your nonretirement accounts once you are in a lower tax bracket. What about that variable annuity you bought a few years ago? If the guarantees in the annuity provide a certain level of income, there is no downside risk to an aggressive position within the contract. It may make sense to be very aggressive with the investments inside it, as that gives the annuity the best possibility of delivering a result that is better than the insured outcome. This is a change that could be made right away. Remember to be intentional. The closer you get to retirement, the more intentional you need to be. When you retire, your money has a specific job to do for you. Picture that pinball going through the machine. Bouncing around is fine as long as you get to your goal, but as you get closer to retirement, you're going to want a much smoother course to the finish line.